Analisa Saham SMGR : The Consolidator

DB - SMGR IJ: THE CONSOLIDATOR, TP UPGRADE TO RP 18,000

SMGR + SMCB = TP upgrade to Rp18k

DB cement analyst, Joko Sogie, expects ST earnings hiccup during transition year 2019 but expect >50% NP growth in 2020, while EBITDA to nearly double from current level by 2020. At new TP Rp18k, mean revert EV/EBITDA 14/11x 2019/20E; we factor in 4 major things:

1) Muted supply increase

2) Continued mild Vol+ASP increase

3) Costs tailwind from Coal & IDR

4) Structural costs efficiency from internal and SMCB inclusion