google-site-verification=zsLknblUv9MPpbGfVx9l3sfhCtAjcEQGFzXwTpBAmUo Analisa Saham PNBN | Road to 10% ROE Langsung ke konten utama

Analisa Saham PNBN | Road to 10% ROE

Bank Panin (PNBN IJ) – Road to 10% ROE, Unlocking M&A Value
Alvin Baramuli, Henry Wibowo – RHB Sekuritas 

Upgrade to BUY from Sell with new TP of IDR2,000, +33% upside, implying 1.2x P/BV towards FY19F BVPS. Panin’s performance could improve given lower cost of funds, stable CoC and higher loans growth, with net profit CAGR of 13.4% in FY18-21F. 

Assume net profit CAGR of 13.4% in FY18-21F. Bank Panin’s performance would be driven by a combination of gradual improvement in NIM of 4.9%, 5%, and 5.1% in FY19F-21F, supported by a more dovish interest rate outlook (lower cost of funds) and higher loan growth. We should also see stable CoC (1.8% in FY17 to 1.3% in FY18) hovering around 1.3% due to overall improvement in asset quality. Consequently, we think that ROE could improve gradually from 8.7% in FY18 to 10% in FY21F. 

Loan growth CAGR 9.1% in FY18-21F. Loan growth to be driven by consumer (mortgage), SME and corporate segments. For mortgage, Panin’s promotion ie 7-9% fix rate for 3-year tenure is one of the most attractive among peers that is likely to drive demand especially in the middle-low segment. Also, upside could come in 2H19 largely from SME with Panin’s unique strength in the Chinese-Indonesian business community, while the corporate segment via loan syndication ie construction could also grow. Overall, management guided for 8-10% loan growth for 2019.
   
ANZ potential divestment; M&A to unlock value at 1-1.5x P/BV. In line with recent M&A trend in Indonesia, ANZ was also reportedly planning to divest its 39% stake and is currently seeking approval from regulators. Panin, with total assets of IDR207trn in FY18, is the only bank among Top 10 banks that is available for sale (outside Bank Permata) in our view. Potential buyers could possibly be foreign (ie Japanese), private equity or majority shareholder. Regardless, ANZ would need to either divest or increase its stake in Panin due to the single presence policy in Indonesia, although we think the former is more plausible. Note, ANZ purchased Panin for a total of c.IDR1.3trn (~USD114m) for 8% stake, which it bought in 2009, translating to c.2x trailing P/BV while the remaining c.30% was bought in 1999-2004. Hence, the valuation could be 1-1.5x P/BV, given Panin’s ROE of c.9-10%, and still within average of recent M&As ie MUFG-BDMN at 2-2.3x P/BV at c.10-11% ROE, and SMBC-BTPN at 1.4-1.5x P/BV at c.11-12% ROE.



Komentar

Saham Online di Facebook

Postingan populer dari blog ini

Apa itu Saham ? Pengertian, Contoh, Jenis, Keuntungan, Resiko

Apa itu Saham? Saham adalah jenis surat berharga yang menandakan kepemilikan secara proporsional dalam sebuah perusahaan penerbitnya. Saham kadang disebut ekuitas. Saham memberikan hak kepada pemegang saham atas proporsi aset dan pendapatan perusahaan.  Saham pada umumnya  dijual dan dibeli di bursa saham . Akan tetapi saham juga dijual secara pribadi. Transaksi saham harus sesuai dengan peraturan pemerintah yang dimaksudkan untuk melindungi investor dari praktik penipuan.  Secara historis, investasi saham telah mengungguli sebagian besar investasi lainnya dalam jangka panjang. Investasi saham dapat dilakukan melalui broker saham online atau sekuritas saham yang terdaftar di lembaga yang mengaturnya di sebuah negara.  Sebuah perusahaan terbuka menerbitkan / menjual saham dalam rangka mengumpulkan dana untuk menjalankan bisnisnya. Pemegang saham, ibaratnya telah membeli secuil perusahaan dan memiliki hak atas sebagian aset dan pendapatannya. Dengan kata lain, pemegan

Rekomendasi Saham BBRI, GGRM, DRMA dan ACST oleh RHB Sekuritas Indonesia | 26 Oktober 2023

RHB Sekuritas Indonesia 26 Oktober 2023 Muhammad Wafi PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI) Bank Rakyat Indonesia terlihat kembali melakukan rebound disertai volume dan menguji resistance garis MA20 sekaligus resistance bearish channel-nya. Jika mampu breakout resistance garis MA20 maka akan mengkonfirmasi sinyal reversal dari fase bearish untuk menguji resistance garis MA50. Rekomendasi: Buy area disekitar Rp 5.125 dengan target jual di Rp 5.325 hingga Rp 5.575. Cut loss di Rp 5.000. PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) Gudang Garam terlihat melakukan rebound dan breakout resistance garis MA50 disertai volume dan menguji resistance garis MA20. Jika mampu breakout resistance garis MA20 maka akan mengkonfirmasi sinyal breakout menuju fase bullish dan menguji level tertingginya di bulan Oktober 2023. Rekomendasi: Buy area disekitar Rp 24.800 dengan target jual di Rp 25.375 hingga Rp 26.650. Cut loss di Rp 24.525. PT Dharma Polimetal Tbk (DRMA) Dharma Polimetal terlihat melakukan rebound d

Rekomendasi Saham ADRO, JSMR dan BRPT oleh Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia | 25 Oktober 2023

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Technical Insight Oktober 25, 2023 (tasrul@miraeasset.co.id)         IHSG Daily, 6,806.76 (+0.96%), consolidation, daily trading range 6,790 – 6,845. Critical level di 6,700.  indikator MFI optimized, indikator RSI optimized dan indikator Wiiliam%R optimized mulai bergerak naik dan indeks ini masih berada di bawah normal lower band pada Bollinger Bands Optimized. Pada periode weekly, indikator MFI optimized,indikator RSI optimized dan Stochastic%D masih cenderung konsolidasi dengan sebaran volume terbanyak dari sisi demand dan supply berada atas level saat ini. ADRO Daily, 2,660 (0.00%), buy on weakness, TP 2,890 (+8.65%), daily trading range 2,620 – 2,690. Cut loss level di 2,580. Koreksi indikator MFI optimized,indikator RSI optimized dan indikator William%R optimized masih terlihat namun mulai terbatas. Harga saat ini berada sekitar normal lower band pada Bollinger Bands optimized dengan sebaran volume terbanyak dari sisi demand berada di bawah dan s