google-site-verification=zsLknblUv9MPpbGfVx9l3sfhCtAjcEQGFzXwTpBAmUo Analisa Saham BMRI | 15 Februari 2019 Langsung ke konten utama

Analisa Saham BMRI | 15 Februari 2019

Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI)
Better assets quality improvement
Shinhan Sekuritas Indonesia
Helmi Therik

Bank Mandiri posted a decent earning in full year 2018.  The net profit increased by 21%yoy to IDR25.015tn or slightly lower than our net profit estimation at IDR26tn or 96% of the estimation but remained acceptable. The net profit growth was underpinned by the modest interest income growth by 4.7%yoy to IDR80.9tn while the interest expense rose by 4.2% which resulted in the 4.9% growth of net interest income to IDR54.6tn. The NIM compression continued due to the higher policy rate and the sluggish adjustment of the loan yield which caused the NIM decreased to 5.4% from 5.8%. Amid the lower NIM environment, the company was able to increase the operational efficiency as seen on its cost to income ratio that felt by 119bps to 44.4% from 45.6%. The gradual business process transformation has made a positive impact on the operational efficiency which translated into the higher net profit. BMRI also registered higher fee base income. This contributed to reduce the negative impact from margin compression.  The company posted 20.6%yoy increased in non-interest income to IDR28.443tn. Going forward, we expect the modest growth in the net profit in the range of 17% this year as the higher loan yield adjustment is possible to be executed.

Loan growth was buoyed by strong corporate loan growth. The total loan expanded by 5% while the corporate loan remains the back bone of the company loan which contributed 45.9% of the total loan and recorded higher growth by 21.9%yoy to IDR279tn. The highest loan growth came from micro loan that was up by 25.1%yoy to IDR91.4tn. It was in line with the company’s aiming to accelerate the consumer, micro and small medium enterprise segment contribution to 37% in 2020 from current level at 34%. This gradual transformation would provide better loan yield ahead as the company gradually shifting its loan portion to higher yield assets. The loan growth this year is expected at around 5% to 7% this year as the company would maintain its liquidity as seen in the LDR that currently at 97%. 

The assets quality improves and the NPL decreased to 2.8% from 3.5%. The company claimed that the asset quality improvement was partly due to the effective credit risk analytics. The company running several roles in credit risk analytics through effective portfolio guideline, monitoring early warning and recalibrating all retail assets acquisition by enhancing credit risk tool. This has translated into lower cost of credit that reduced to 1.55% from 2% and lower provision charge by 11%yoy to IDR14.2tn.

Valuation. We consider maintaining the valuation on the back of the improvement of the assets quality and the gradual shifting to the higher yield segment. We set our target price based on our GGM calculation at IDR9,200 which implying the PBV at 1.6X and 1.4 for 2019F and 2020F respectively.


Komentar

Saham Online di Facebook

Postingan populer dari blog ini

Cara Menghitung Beta Saham CAPM

Apa itu CAPM CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) adalah model yang digunakan untuk menentukan tingkat pengembalian(required return) dari suatu aset. Model ini mendapatkan penghargaan nobel  pada tahun 1990 dan pada prakteknya juga sering digunakan untuk menentukan nilai cost of equity. Dari sudut pandang investor, besarnya tingkat pengembalian seharusnya berbanding lurus dengan risiko yang diambil. Untuk memudahkan saya buat ilustrasi yang disederhanakan sebagai berikut: Alex punya uang 100juta, berkeinginan untuk menginvestasikan uangnya pada bisnis warung retail. Pertanyaan yang seringkali dihadapi adalah: Jika Alex memutuskan untuk berinvestasi pada bisnis warung retail, berapa besar tingkat pengembalian yang harus dia dapatkan? Mengingat bahwa jika dia menginvestasikan uangnya, dia dihadapkan dengan risiko bisnis warung retail. Pertimbangan untuk Alex Deposito Investasi Toko/Warung Retail Risiko Minim, relatif nggak ada bagi Alex Bisa bangkrut atau perkembangan bisnis ...

Rekomendasi Saham ERAA, PTBA, INCO dan ENRG oleh NH Korindo Sekuritas | 26 Oktober 2023

NH Korindo Sekuritas 26 Oktober 2023 IHSG KONSOLIDASI – SIDEWAYS / BEARISH Uji Resistance MA10 & MA20. POtensi konsolidasi berlanjut , balik ke Support level previous Low. Support : 6825-6800 / 6780-6745. Resistance : 6870-6890 / 6925-6950 / 7000-7050. ADVISE : WAIT & SEE ; Buy on Weakness Saham ERAA Break pattern channel – downtrend. Tembus Resistance MA10 & MA20. Advise Buy. Entry Level: 438-432 Average Up > 440-450 Target: 460 / 472 / 482 Stoploss: 418 Saham PTBA Uji Support dari level previous Low. RSI positive divergence. Uji Resistance MA10 & MA20. Advise Buy on Break. Entry Level: 2720-2730 Average Up >2780 Target: 2810-2850 / 3000. Stoploss: 2630 Saham INCO MA10 & MA20 sudah goldencross namun harga perlu mantap di atas kedua resistance tsb. Serta Uji Resistance MA50. Advise Speculative Buy. Entry Level: 5525 Average Up >5625. Target : 5800-5900 / 6000 / 6300 Stoploss: 5475. Saham ENRG Uji Support minor dari level previous Low. RSI positive divergen...

Rekomendasi Saham JSMR dan BSSR oleh Phillip Capital Sekuritas | 26 Oktober 2023

Phillip Capital Sekuritas 26 Oktober 2023 Technical Recommendations JSMR Short Term Trend : Bullish Medium Term Trend : Bullish Trading Buy : 4360 Target Price 1 : 4600 Target Price 2 : 4780 Stop Loss : 4140 BSSR Short Term Trend : Bullish Medium Term Trend : Bullish Trading Buy : 4040 Target Price 1 : 4130 Target Price 2 : 4230 Stop Loss : 3950 - Materi video tutorial belajar trading dan investasi saham ada di   Channel Youtube Saham Online.