FR CGS-CIMB (YU) : Cement
Industry consolidation underway but SMGR could suffer from winner's curse
UNDERWEIGHT - Maintained
Author(s): Jovent GIOVANNY +62 (21) 3006 1727, Timothy HANDERSON, Leonardo TUKIMAN
SMGR has won the bid for SMCB at an enterprise valuation of US$1.75bn, translating to share price of Rp2,290-2,340 for SMCB (+19-23% from Fri).
Post-acquisition, the top 2 players (SMGR and INTP) will control c.80% sales volume market share which should positively impact pricing going forward.
We think SMGR could suffer from winner’s curse due to its additional US$ debt. Our preference stays with INTP. Maintain Underweight on valuations.
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