PTBA - Dividends and possible better earnings in 4Q18 (TP5700)
DMO transfer quota may bump up 4Q18 earnings
There is also potential earnings upside from DMO (Domestic Market Obligation) transfer quota (excess quota is 6mn tonnes) that could increase PTBA’s earnings by as much as 10% in 2018F, and the sale of PTBA’s treasury shares (the 1st phase is in May’19) which we think should be 497mn shares or c60% of the total treasury share. It would give potential additional cash of IDR2.4trn (assuming IDR4,900/sh) that would trigger special dividend payout, as Inalum needs cash, with potential yield 4%. The remaining treasury shares sales phase 2 and 3 would be in Dec’19 and Dec’21.
Valuation: maintain Buy call and TP 5700
We maintain our BUY recommendation without any changes in earnings. Our SOTP-based TP is IDR5,700. Our TP implies 11.4x 2018F P/E. PTBA is trading at 9.3x/9.2x 2018-19 P/E. Also note that PTBA share price has done well this week due to its inclusion into MSCI Indonesia (announced yesterday). Downside risk is a significant drop in coal price.
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