• 10M18 national sales came in at 962.8k units, as per our bullish view until end of year.
• ASII’s 10M18 market share surged to 50.3% (vs. 1H18 of 48.5%), competitor’s market share e.g. Suzuki and Mitsubishi continued to decay.
• Daihatsu standalone October sales broke its record at 21k units (up 25.5% YoY), which we still attribute to its robust SUV sales.
At last, above-50
After trading hours on November 14, Astra International (ASII IJ) released the national 4W sales data for 10M18, at 962.8k units (+7.1% YoY). October sales for 4W were 106k units (+12.3% YoY), a robust figure in accordance with our expectation of bullish sales continuance until end of year. The 10M18 4W figure came in at 84.7% of our FY estimate; hence, we maintain our national 4W estimate of 1.136mn units for 2018F.
ASII’s standalone October 4W market share figure stood at 56.5%, buffering ASII’s 10M18 market share to above-50 figure of 50.3% (vs. 9M18 at 49.6% vs. 8M18 at 49.1%), at last. We are still on our view that ASII’s robust performance stemmed from its strong SUV sales (please refer to our ASII report “Shaping the market into SUV” dated August 14). Worth noting that Daihatsu’s standalone October sales were spectacular at 21k (all-time high figure; up 25.5% YoY). We conclude the remarkable achievement stemmed from solid Terios variant delivery. ASII’s 10M18 market share is getting closer to our 2018 full-year market share estimate of 51.1% (vs. 53.6% as of FY17).
We continue our view of weaker competitor position in the 4W market going forward. Suzuki’s 4W market share in 10M18 is going down to 10.3% (vs. 11% as of 1H18), which we think will further solidify our view that the Suzuki Ertiga lacks attractiveness to overall 4W consumers. Mitsubishi’s 4W 10M18 market share continued to deteriorate to 17.4% (vs. 18.1% as of 1H18), a further confirmation that Mitsubishi will no longer be a threat to ASII’s 4W throne. Previously we argued that Mitsubishi would have lower sales going forward given its subsidy cut to Xpander variety prices (please refer to our ASII report “Reclaiming the missing pie” dated May 21).
All in all, we maintain our Buy recommendation with TP of Rp9,175 on ASII (12.2% upside from last closing price). ASII is currently trading at 13.9x 18F P/E, still below its 5-year average of 15.7x.
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