Surya Citra Media (SCMA IJ) - Lacking positive catalysts by Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
Oct 22, 2018
- 3Q18 review: 9M18 bottom line reached IDR1.19tr, meeting our expectation (80% run rate against our full-year forecast, vs. 75-83% in the past three years), but running behind the consensus forecast (72% run rate).
- As for top line, SCMA’s revenue grew by double digits to IDR1.32tr (+30.4% YoY), yet contracted slightly on a QoQ basis (-0.4% QoQ). Cumulatively, 9M18 revenue met expectations, achieving 76% of our full-year forecast and 75% of the full-year consensus.
- We revise down our 2019 earnings forecast for SCMA, given: 1) IVM’s higher programming costs in 2019, and 2) the fact that programming costs are likely rising for SCTV, as evidenced by its high audience share rating in 2018.
- We roll forward our valuation to 2019F, but we trim our target price on SCMA to IDR1,650 and downgrade our rating to Hold.
(See: https://goo.gl/2Dwkom)
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