Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Embun Pagi (Agustus 1, 2018)
Research Team (research@miraeasset.co.id)
Market comment by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
Semalam wall street ditutup lebih tinggi dengan masing-masing Dow di 25.415,19 (+0,43%), Nasdaq di 7.671,79 (+0,55%) dan S&P di 2.816,29 (+0,49%). Pasar saham AS ditutup lebih tinggi setelah sebuah laporan mengatakan AS dan China mencari pembicaraan untuk meredakan konflik perdagangan yang meningkat antara kedua negara. Sementara itu, IHSG turun lebih dari 1% terseret turun oleh harga saham TLKM yang lebih rendah pada kemarin. TLKM turun menjadi IDR3.570 (-8,69%) setelah membukukan hasil keuangan 1H18 yang mengecewakan. Namun, kami memperkirakan bahwa IHSG akan diperdagangkan lebih tinggi didukung oleh pelonggaran dalam ketegangan perang perdagangan antara AS dan China.
Market Indicator
JCI: 5,936.44 (-1.52%)
EIDO: 23.77 (-1.86%)
DJIA: 25,415.19 (+0.43%)
FTSE100: 7,748.76 (+0.62%)
USD/IDR: 14,414 (-0.01%)
10yr GB yield: 7.77% (+4bps)
Oil Price: 68.76 (-1.95%)
Foreign net purchase: IDR270.4bn
Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)
TOP BUY: PTBA, PWON, WSBP, BUMI, ASII
TOP SELL: TLKM, ADRO, BBNI, INKP, LPPF
Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)
TLKM, TKIM, BBRI, ADRO, BBCA
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
Investment Information Team (saryanto@miraeasset.co.id)
Indeks kepercayaan konsumen naik ke 127,4 di bulan Juli
Tingkat simpanan AS tetap di 6.8% di bulan Juni
Pendapatan pribadi A.S. meningkat 0,4% Juni
Pengeluaran konsumen AS naik 0,4% pada bulan Juni
Keuntungan 12 bulan di PCE inti tidak berubah pada 1,9%
12 bulan peningkatan PCE datar di 2,2%
Indeks inflasi PCE naik 0,1% pada bulan Juni, inti naik 0,1%
Kenaikan 12 bulan di ECI meningkat menjadi 2,8%, tertinggi dalam 10 tahun
Upah ECI meningkat 0,5% di kuartal 2, manfaat naik 0,9%
Indeks biaya tenaga kerja AS naik 0,6% pada kuartal ke-2
*BDMN +5.20%. OJK restui Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ kuasai 40% saham Bank Danamon
*BWPT +11.47%. Setelah Rugi Sejak 2015, Eagle High berhasil Cetak Laba 2Q18 sebesar Rp2 miliar.
*PSSI +7.40%. Semester I 2018, laba Pelita Samudera Shipping meroket 1.881%
*TLKM -8.69%. Laba Telkom Indonesia Turun 28.13% menjadi Rp.8,69 triliun
*PTPP -8.77%. 2Q18, Laba Bersih PT PP (Persero) Tbk turun 16,21%
Technical insight by Tasrul (tasrul@miraeasset.co.id)
*IHSG Daily, 5,936.44 (-1.518%), consolidation, trading range hari ini 5,896 – 5,954. Indikator MFI optimized dan indikator W%R optimized masih cenderung turun. Figure 3 pada periode weekly ,indikator MFI optimized, indikator RSI optimized dan Stochastic %D optimized juga cenderung naik dengan demikian pola kenaikan sementara akan tertahan. Daily resistance terdekat di 5,954 dan support di 5,896. Cut loss level di 5,875.
*TKIM Daily, 14,500 (+5.45%), trading buy ,trading range 13,975 – 14,925. Indikator MFI optimized dan ndilkator RSI optimized cenderung naik lebih lanjut. Daily support di 13,975 dan daily resistance di 14,925. Cut loss level di 13,225.
*BRPT Weekly, 1,815 (-0.82%), trading buy, 1,740 – 1,945. indikator MFI optimized & Stochastic %D masih cenderung naik. Daily dan Weekly resistance di 1,850 dan 1,945. Sementara itu daily dan weekly support di 1,770 dan 1,740. Cut loss level di 1,695.
*TPIA Weekly, 5,000 (+0.40%), trading buy, trading range 4,850 – 5,100. Indikator MFI optimized akan menguji support trend line , indikator W%R optimized sertab indkator Stochastic % D optimized optimized masih cenderung naik . Dengan demikian diperkirakan potensi kenaikan secara umum masih terlihat. Perkiraan daily dan weekly resistance di 5,050 dan 5,100. Daily support dan weekly support di 4,860 dan 4,850. Cut loss level di 4,800.
Daily write up
HM Sampoerna (HMSP) 2Q18 review: Double-digit bottom-line growth by Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
- Untuk 2Q18, HMSP membukukan pendapatan sebesar IDR26.02tr (+12.5% QoQ, +8.4% YoY), membawa perhitungan kumulatif top-line di 1H18 sebesar 46% dari estimasi setahun penuh, yang mana sejalan dengan estimasi kami.
- Perusahaan membukukan penurunan marjin kotor di 2Q18, menjadi 22.8% (-1%p QoQ, -0.5%p YoY; vs. 23.8% di 1Q18 dan 23.3% di 2Q17), sebagian besar karena volume penjualan yang lebih tinggi pada produk dengan margin kecil.
- Pada 2Q18, harga per batang Magnum Mild mencapai IDR980, yang termurah di antara merek HMSP, namun dibandingkan dengan harga 1Q18, ASP Magnum Mild meningkat tertinggi (+5%QoQ) dibandingkan merek lainnya. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Hold pada HMSP tetapi menaikkan target harga menjadi IDR4,200, dengan menaikkan target multiple menjadi +1 std dev.
(See full report: https://goo.gl/VpDikP)
Earnings review
ACE Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ)-2Q18 review: Resilient growth by Christine Natasya
(natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
July 31, 2018
- 2Q18 review: ACES booked robust net profit of IDR221.2bn in 2Q18 (+5.9% QoQ, +27.1% YoY), bringing the cumulative 1H18 run-rate to 48%/47% against our 2018 estimate and the full-year consensus (vs. 42-44% over the past three years), respectively.
- Continued strong sales in June: ACES booked strong sales of IDR663bn (+21.4% YoY), the highest monthly figure on record. Same-store-sales growth (SSSG) continued double-digit growth in June, at 14.2% (vs. 22.8% in June 2017 and 14.6% in May 2018).
- Stable Gross margin: ACES booked a stable gross margin of 48% in 2Q18 (vs. 47.8% in 1Q18 and 48% in 2Q18), despite a depreciating rupiah throughout 2Q18. We think margin was supported by the fact that ACES applies a cost-plus-margin scheme, and that a lagging effect is expected on any rupiah depreciation.
- ACES’ smaller store format - Ace Express: In 2Q18, the company opened 10 new stores, including three Ace Express stores—which feature a smaller store format in Tangerang, Bintaro, and Green Ville targetting more middle-class consumers with lower pricing and a greater variety of products. We are optimistic on ACES’ new store productivity, despite its very aggressive store openings in the past two years.
- We retain our Trading Buy rating on ACES with a target price of IDR1,540 as we remain upbeat on ACES for the rest of 2018 due to continued in-store promotion programs and the wider target customer base reached through ACE Express stores. We are particularly positive on its solid balance sheet, healthy expansion, and resilient target market.
(Please see more at: https://goo.gl/fQhqq7)
Flash Focus
UNVR 2Q18 earnings flash review by Mimi Halimin (mimi.halimin@miraeasset.co.id)
(Jul 31, 2018)
- For 2Q18, Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ) posted revenue of IDR10.4tr (+0.2% YoY; -2.9% QoQ), with gross profit margin (GPM) merely declining to 50.6% (vs. 50.7% in 2Q17 and 51.1% in 1Q18).
- As for the bottom line, UNVR booked 2Q18 net profit of IDR1.7tr (+1.7% YoY, -8.1% QoQ), led its 1H18 net profit to IDR3.5tr (-2.6% YoY), achieving a run-rate of 46.9% and 46.0% against our and consensus’ full-year estimates, respectively.
- Overall, we view that UNVR’s 2Q18 results describe that consumer’s purchasing intention has not fully recovered. The fact that revenue declined (QoQ) in 2Q18 despite festive seasons that fell during the quarter is quite disappointing, in our view. Our recommendation on UNVR post-2Q18 results is currently under review.
(See: https://goo.gl/AKKanU)
Flash Focus
RALS: 2Q18 results- Bottom line above expectations by Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
(Jul 31, 2018)
- For 2Q18, RALS booked net profit of IDR471bn (+3,113% QoQ, +28.9% YoY).
- Cumulatively, RALS booked net profit of IDR486.1bn in 1H18 (+31.8%YoY), beating our and consensus estimates (96% run rate to our full-year forecast and 101% of full-year consensus).
- As for top line, the company booked 2Q18 revenue of IDR2.45tr (+133% QoQ, 2.5% YoY). Cumulatively in 1H18, the company booked IDR3.49tr revenue. Revenue is on track to meeting full-year expectations (58% and 54% run rates to our forecast and the consensus, respectively.
- Among all of RALS’ business segments, consignment sales showed the fastest growth in 1H18 (+13.1% YoY), followed by department stores (+10.9% YoY). Meanwhile, supermarket sales fell 20% YoY in 1H18, mainly due to the closures of 18 unprofitable supermarkets since last year.
- We maintain our Trading Buy recommendation with Target price of IDR1,615.
(Please see more at: https://goo.gl/YWbfHV)
Flash Focus
Surya Citra Media 2Q18 earnings flash review by Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
(Jul 31, 2018)
- SCMA booked net profit of IDR477.6bn in 2Q18, growing by 33%QoQ but lower than last year by 12%. Cumulatively, bottom line reached IDR836.7bn in 1H18, in line with our and consensus’ forecasts (56% run-rate against our FY18F and 50% run-rate to consensus’ FY18F forecasts).
- On the top line side, SCMA booked IDR1.32Tr revenue in 2Q18, grew double-digit by 14.3% QoQ. However, topline was lower by 6.2% YoY, due to more holidays during this year’s Lebaran which caused FMCGs to delay their ad spending. Nonetheless, 1H18 top line was in line by achieving 50% of our full-year forecast and 49% of the consensus’ full-year estimates.
- The company will publish full-year financial statement on IDX today. We maintain buy on SCMA with target price of IDR2,980.
(Please see more at: https://goo.gl/nK6PMo)
Flash Focus
LPPF 2Q18 flash review: A boost from Eid-Al-Fitr by Christine Natasya
(natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
(Jul 31, 2018)
- Matahari Department Store (LPPF/ Buy/TP: IDR12,550) booked net profit of IDR1.09tr (+345% QoQ, +0.4% YoY) in the 2Q18. We consider bottom line to be in line with our forecast and the consensus (69% run rate to our full-year forecast, 65% run rate to full-year consensus’).
- As for top line, 2Q18 net revenue came in at IDR3.9tr (+101.6% QoQ, +1.8% YoY), also in line with our estimate and the consensus’ (55% run rate to our full-year forecast, 53% run rate to full-year consensus’).
- LPPF will conduct a conference call after the market closes today (31/7). We maintain our Buy recommendation with a target price of IDR12,550.
(Please see more at: https://goo.gl/yzMyrd)
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