Analisa Saham BSDE | 7 Juni 2018

DANAREKSA (OD) 29 Mar 2018

BSDE BUY TP 2000

  

Upside remains   

We reiterate our BUY call on BSDE with an unchanged target price of IDR2,000. We believe upside potential remains considering encouraging marketing sales in 1Q18 of IDR2.3tn, +44.2%yoy or equivalent to 31.9% of our full year marketing sales target and the management’s target of IDR7.2tn. Furthermore, BSDE is set to issue USD300mn of new global bonds, with the majority of the proceeds to be used to refinance existing IDR bonds that will mature in May 2018. We expect the bonds issuance to lower the effective interest rate to 7.3% in 2018 from 7.4% in 2017. 

Expecting strong marketing sales in 1Q18. Based on the company’s guidance, BSDE expects to record marketing sales of IDR2.3tn in 1Q18, +44.2%yoy. This figure is 31.9% of our full year marketing sales target and the management’s target of IDR7.2tn, supported by: (i) commercial land plot sales of IDR840bn, (ii) the launching of Zora (IDR120bn), (iii) the launching of Jadeite (IDR180bn), (iv) the launching of Tevana Savia (IDR118bn), (v) walk-in sales from Foresta Business Loft (IDR70bn), (vi) marketing sales recognition from Klaska apartment (IDR400bn) and Southgate (IDR250bn). The marketing sales already include the recent commercial land plot sales this month in MT Haryono, Jakarta, reaching IDR240bn for 7,800sqm.

New bonds issuance to lower the effective interest rate. BSDE is set to issue USD300mn of global bonds, with the majority of the proceeds to be used for: (i) refinancing the IDR denominated bonds (IDR1.75tn Obligasi BSD II) that will mature in June 2018, (ii) working capital needs. With the global bonds expected to carry a coupon rate of 6%, or considerably lower than the coupon rate on the existing IDR denominated bonds of 8.375%, we expect BSDE’s effective interest rate to decline to 7.3% in 2018 from 7.4% in 2017. We expect the remaining proceeds from the bonds issuance to be sufficient to cover this year’s capex allocation of IDR4.0tn considering BSDE’s cash outstanding of IDR5.8tn. 

Maintain BUY. 

We reiterate our BUY call on BSDE with an unchanged target price of IDR2,000 (SOTP based valuation with WACC of 12.8%, Terminal Growth of 4.0%, and target discount to NAV of 68%). BSDE currently trades at a 71.7% discount to NAV, near to +1SD discount to NAV of 70.5%. 

We believe upside remains given: 

(i) the expectation of strong marketing sales in 1Q18, 

(ii) BSDE’s deep discount to NAV.DANAREKSA (OD) 29 Mar 2018

BSDE BUY TP 2000