Analisa Saham BMRI
BMRI 2017 results. Strong earnings +50%yoy ...but let's be more meticulous and objective before taking a decision.
*The bad*: Earnings up mostly due to lower provisions by Rp8trillion, strong non interest income but a lot of recoveries/forex gains/others, Net interest income +1%yoy, PPOP +0%yoy, yields under pressure.
*The Good*: interest expense growth to be even more moderate, room for more opex discipline,Strong non interest income,slower interest income to increase sligthly after continuous kick-in from infra/lower interest from grace periods,npl heading below 3%
*Valuation*: trading close to average 2.2-2.3x pb18 not particularly stretched but cannot say cheap too.
*Why BUY?*: Will maintain high dividend payout + extra Special dividend (could brind yield to 4-5% and up to 60% payout), double digit earnings growth in 18/19F and higher ROE support valuation,continuous positive earnings beat maintain positive sentiment on stock.
*Reality*: Could slightly outperform JCI as the laggard, Not at discount but since fundamentals are there is at least a minimum solid hold in portfolio.
Rgds Alex UOB Kay Hian
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