Analisa Saham Sektor Consumer
Danareksa Sekuritas Sector Update – Consumer 12/20/2017
Bright outlook but a bit pricey
-In 2018, there will be 171 regional elections (on 27 June 2018) in 17 provinces, 115 municipalities and 39 cities. This is nearly double the number of regional elections in 2017 (101 only). From the past two presidential elections (2009 and 2014), data from consumer companies depicts significant revenues growth on a yearly basis in the 4 quarters before the elections. In 2009, the sector’s revenues increased by 11.2% yoy while in 2014 growth was higher at 14.2% yoy (in the 4 quarters prior to the elections). Should this pattern be repeated in 2018-19, consumer companies will be positively impacted.
-For 2018, the government proposes ID94.6tn of energy subsidies, up 5.2% from the amount in 2017’s revised budget. The government also plans for 10mn low-income households (2017 target: 6mn) to receive non-cash social assistance. To further support purchasing power, the government is also planning to launch a cashbasis labor intensive program in 2018 to absorb job seekers as well as provide direct income, with funding coming from village funds (2018: IDR60tn).
-Valuation: NEUTRAL
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