Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Embun Pagi (Nov 10, 2017)
Research Team (research@miraeasset.co.id)
Market comment by Darmawan Halim (darmawan.halim@miraeasset.co.id)
Trump menandatangani kesepakatan bisnis USD250 miliar dengan China namun pasar tidak terkesan karena kebanyakan nota kesepakatan tersebut tidak mengikat. Presiden Xi Jin Ping mengatakan bahwa China masih akan mengikuti program ekonominya dan akan membuka pasarnya sesuai dengan jadwal and agenda mereka sendiri. Sementara itu, program pemotongan pajak Trump tidak diimplementasikan tahun depan karena Senat AS menginginkan penundaan satu tahun dalam pelaksanaannya. Hal ini akan memberikan ruang nafas terhadap Rupiah.
Market Indicator
JCI: 6,042.46 (-0.11%)
EIDO: 27.00 (-0.52%)
DJIA: 23,461.94 (-0.43%)
FTSE100: 7,484.10 (-0.61%)
USD/IDR: 13,516 (+0.01%)
10yr GB yield: 6.64% (-1bps)
Oil Price: 57.17 (+0.63%)
Foreign net purchase: -IDR181.0bn
Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)
TOP BUY: BBRI, ASII, GGRM, BBNI, BBTN
TOP SELL: BMRI, ADRO, BBCA, INKP, UNTR
Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)
BBRI, BMRI, TLKM, BBCA, BDMN
Technical insight by Tasrul (tasrul@miraeasset.co.id)
*IHSG: Daily, 6,042.46(-0.1%), consolidation, trading range hari ini 6,029 – 6,063. Potensi kenaikkan mulai terbatas dan rawan koreksi. Hal ini mengingat indikator MFI optimized, RSI optimized dan Stochastic %D cenderung turun. Sementara itu pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized gagal mendekati tembus BBTop. Pada pergerakkan weekly Indikator MFI optimized , indikator W%R optimized naik terbatas dan indikator Stochastic%D optimized terlihat cenderung turun dan Bollinger Band optimized harga sudah berada di BBTop.
*KREN: Daily, 540 (+0.9%), trading buy, trading range 525 – 560. Indikator MFI optimized, indikator RSI optimized cenderung naik dan indikator Stochastic%D optimized akan menguji support trend linePada pergerakkan daily harga saat ini naik ke level +0.9 % , normal kenaikkan sekitar +2.26 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan sekitar -4.4%, normal kenaikkan sekitar +2.94 %. Dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat.
*BBCA: Daily, 20,800 (+0.0%),buy on weakness, trading range 20,700 – 21,025. Indikator MFI optimized , indikator RSI optimized dan indikator Stochastic%D akan menguji support trend line. Lebih lanjut potensi koreksi normal harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -0.83%, saat ini di level 0.0 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal sekitar -2.2% saat ini harga terkoreksi ke -1.1%. Dengan demikian potensi koreksi mulai terbatas.
*TLKM: Weekly, 4,160 (+1.7%), trading buy, trading range 4,040 – 4,260. Indikator MFI optimized,indikator W%R optimized,dan indikator RSI optimized cenderung naik , sementara itu indikator Stochastic%D optimized akan menguji support trend line. Jika dilihat lebih lanjut kenaikkan normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +0.97 %, saat ini di level +1.5 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +2.78 % saat ini di level +1.7.0%. Dengan demikan potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat namun untuk sementara masih terbatas.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
Investment Information Team (saryanto@miraeasset.co.id)
*Klaim pengangguran bulanan di level terendah sejak Maret 1973
*Klaim pengangguran empat minggu rata-rata turun 1.250 sampai 231.250
*Klaim pengangguran mingguan awal A.S. meningkat 10.000 menjadi 239.000
*PTBA +0.4%. Berencana melakukan pemecahan nilai nominal saham (stock split) dengan rasio 1:5 dalam waktu dekat.
*BDMN +18%. Otoritas Jasa Keuangan akan memanggil manajemen PT. Bank Danamon Tbk untuk meminta klarifikasi mengenai kabar rencana akan diakuisisinya bank tersebut oleh investor Jepang, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU).
*SMRA +0.4%. PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA) memberikan bunga obligasi sebesar 8,8% per tahun dalam penawaran Obligasi Berkelanjutan II Tahap II Tahun 2017 senilai Rp800 miliar.
*JSMR +0.3%. PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk., menjajaki kemungkinan penerbitan surat utang syariah atau sukuk sebagai salah satu sumber pendanaan alternatif di masa mendatang.
*ICON -3.4%.Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) mecermati pola transaksi saham PT Island Concept Indonesia Tbk (ICON) karena mengalami peningkatan harga dan aktivitas saham yang diluar kebiasaan (UMA).
*PNBS -1.1%. PT Bank Panin Tbk (PNBN) melepas sebagian kecil kepemilikan sahamnya dalam PT Bank Panin Dubai Syariah Tbk (PNBS) pada 3 November 2017
*ASII -0.3%. Astra patok capex 2018 sekitar Rp 14 triliun
Daily write up
ANTM: Inline result by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
- Di 3Q17, Aneka Tambang (ANTM) berhasil membukukan laba bersih positif menjadi IDR164,6 miliar dari sebelumnya rugi bersih sebesar IDR502,8 miliar di 2Q17. Pencapaian di 3Q17 sesuai dengan perkiraan kami (Silahkan lihat preview kami “Too good to miss”).
- Sementara itu, pendapatan dan EBIT lebih baik dibandingkan perkiraan kami karena naiknya volume penjualan tetapi diimbangi oleh kenaikan beban bunga.
- Sehingga, kami meningkatkan laba bersih 2017F sebesar 8,1% namun masih mempertahan perkiraan laba bersih di 2018F.
- Kami masih mempertahankan TP kami di IDR730 dan menurunkan peringkat ANTM menjadi Hold dari sebelumnya Trading Buy karena menawarkan potensi kenaikan 8.9%.
Please click here to view full report
Macro update
Macro Update 3Q17 GDP review: An expected disappointment by Taye Shim (taye.shim@miraeasset.com)
- For 3Q17, Indonesia reported gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.06% YoY (vs. the consensus and our forecast of 5.2% YoY). Despite the soft growth print, the market reaction was broadly neutral as the JCI continued to show mixed movements following the release.
- Private consumption (+4.9% YoY): Despite the central bank’s efforts to stimulate growth through lower interest rates, we believe consumer spending sentiment remains conservative.
- Government spending (+3.5% YoY): The run rate of government revenue to the full-year target stood at 63.3% as of September. We are particularly encouraged by the sharp increase in non-tax state revenue (+18.7% YoY as of 9M17), chiefly driven by revenue from natural resources (+118.0% YoY as of 9M17).
- Investment growth (+7.1%): The strong investment growth print was predominantly driven by strong FDI (IDR111.7tr, +16.8% YoY) and DDI (IDR64.9tr, +12.0% YoY) flows.
- Trade (exports +17.3%, imports +15.1% YoY): trade activities—exports of IDR1,589.7tr (+9.5% YoY), imports of IDR1,420.8tr (+6.8% YoY)—seem to be on the recovery track. Given the improving macroeconomic conditions globally, we expect to see continued improvement to the nation’s trade balance going forward.
(More at: goo.gl/wHfwvh)
Flash Focus
Infrastructure week conference recap by Franky Rivan (franky@miraeasset.co.id)
(Nov 9, 2017)
- We attended InfraRail Indonesia 2017 conference in Indonesia Infrastructure Week event today to get recent updates from stakeholders and key players in national railway development. The key theme was “Supporting the development and advancement of Indonesia’s rail transport network” and was spoken by key representatives from MoT (Kemenhub), KAI, KCIC, MRT Jakarta, Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ/Buy/TP IDR2,640), Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ/Hold/TP IDR2,170), Indonesian Railways Society (MASKA), INKA, SMI, and JAKPRO. Key takeaways are:
1. Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway’s (HSR) extension to Kertajati (c.80km) and Cirebon (c.50km) is not a new agenda and already in MoT’s discussion. Worth noting that the extension proposal came from Japanese consultants, not from MoT, hence news highlighting that the extension would partner with the Japanese would be incorrect at the moment. However, MoT suggested that the route to Cirebon is not feasible given hardships in land contour, and extension to Surabaya is better via South Java. Either way, we think any extension would mean another new contract opportunity to WIKA, as we think the tone during the conversation suggested that China would be the key partner in Jakarta-Bandung HSR extension.
2. Inner Jakarta LRT project (Kelapa Gading-Velodrome) phase 1 has met 43.56% completion at the moment, a little lagged behind from 44.25% target due to temporary technical issue in Perintis Kemerdekaan. Project owner i.e. JAKPRO reiterated WIKA’s hasty completion as the project would be done by Aug 2018 (only 20 months construction vs. usual completion of 36 months).
3. Earlier this week, JAKPRO management met the newly elected Vice Governor Sandiaga Uno to discuss Inner Jakarta LRT extension to phase 2. The Vice Governor highlighted that the project should not rely and burden APBD heavily, hence pushed JAKPRO to act as the investor in the project as well (similar to KAI in Jabodebek LRT project). Having said that, JAKPRO management would open any partnership opportunity to develop the project, which we think most likely directed to the SMI, which also participated in the event. We estimate the phase 2 contract value would be quite similar to current phase 1 value of IDR5.3tr. Mr. Vice Governor also mentioned that the next phase’s groundbreaking should occur by early next year. Given WIKA is the contractor of phase 1 project, we think any advancement in phase 2 project could mean another new contracts opportunity for WIKA.
4. Jakarta MRT South-North project has met 83.07% completion progress (74.64% for elevated, 91.57% for underground) as of Oct 31. The operation & maintenance readiness progress also met 33.44% for the period. The project is expected to begin operation by March 2019.
- All in all, we think government’s direction to the infrastructure development would remain aggressive going forward, which we think could mean another pressure to construction companies’ balance sheet (please refer to our construction industry report “Escalated systematic risks” for more details). We maintain our Neutral outlook to the construction space.
(See: https://goo.gl/EmfHyD)
<Market Headlines>
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Pembahasan subsidi LRT memasuki tahap akhir (Bisnis Indonesia)
PT Kereta Api Indonesia menyatakan pembahasan mekanisme subsidi dalam proyek kereta ringan atau LRT terintegrasi Jabodebek memasuki tahap terakhir
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