Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Embun Pagi (Nov 2, 2017)
Research Team (research@miraeasset.co.id)
Market comment by Taye Shim (taye.shim@miraeasset.com)
Fed mempertahankan key interest rates tidak berubah (seperti yang diperkirakan) dan tidak ada kejutan. Ke depan, event key market moving sampai akhir minggu adalah 1) Fed Chair berikutnya - dikenal luas adalah Jerome Powell (official announcement malam ini). Bloomberg mengatakan Powell adalah "mantan private-equity executive yang ingin melanjutkan kenaikan interest-rates secara bertahap dan bersimpati dengan White House untuk memudahkan regulasi keuangan." 2) Rencana reformasi pajak GOP juga akan diumumkan segera (mungkin malam ini), dan 3) laporan payrolls hari Jumat akan diantisipasi secara luas. Di sisi lokal, inflasi Oktober berada di 3,58% YoY, yang lebih rendah dari pada guidance BI 3,61%. PMI bulan Oktober Indonesia berada di 50,1 (vs konsensus 51). # WHAT ABOUT 3Q17 GDP? Indonesia diperkirakan akan merilis 3Q17 economic scorecard Senin depan.
Market Indicator
JCI: 6,038.15 (+0.53%)
EIDO: 26.83 (+0.49%)
DJIA: 23,435.01 (+0.25%)
FTSE100: 7,487.96 (-0.07%)
USD/IDR: 13,580 (-0.13%)
10yr GB yield: 6.77% (-3bps)
Oil Price: 54.30 (-0.15%)
Foreign net purchase: -IDR1,120.9bn
Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)
TOP BUY: BBNI, BBCA, UNTR, LPPF, ADRO
TOP SELL: TLKM, ASII, PNLF, SMGR, INCO
Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)
TLKM, BBCA, BBNI, SRIL, ASII
Technical insight by Tasrul (tasrul@miraeasset.co.id)
*IHSG: Daily, 6,038.15(+0.5%), test resistance at 6,050, trading range hari ini 6,007 – 6,050. Potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat. Hal ini mengingat indikator MFI optimized, RSI optimized dan Stochastic %D cenderung naik. Sementara itu pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized akan menguji BBTop. Pada pergerakkan weekly Indikator MFI optimized , indikator W%R optimized dan indikator Stochastic%D optimized terlihat cenderung naik mendekati resistance trend line namun pada Bollinger Band optimized harga sudah berada di BBTop.
*INDY: Daily, 2,320 (+3.1%), trading buy, trading range 2,620 – 2,400. Indikator MFI optimized, indikator indikator RSI optimized , indikator Stochastic%D optimized cenderung naik lebih lanjut. Pada pergerakkan daily harga saat ini pada level -1.2 % , normal koreksi sekitar -1.25 % . Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi sekitar -29%, normal kenaikkan sekitar -2.1 %. Dan jika dilihat lebih lanjut pada pergerakkan monthly harga telah tembus support dan akan menguji level support berikutnya di 3,990. Dengan demikian potensi koreksi makin terbatas dengan kcenderungan menguat.
*JPFA: Daily,1,340 (-2.5%),buy on weakness, trading range 1,330 – 1,380. Indikator MFI optimized, indikator RSI optimized dan indikator Stochastic%D optimized sudah berada sekitar support trend line dengan kecenderungan menguat. Lebih lanjut potensi koreksi normal harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -1.78%, saat ini di level -2.5 % setelah tiga hari sebelumnya juga terkoreksi. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal sekitar -4.48% saat ini harga sekitar -5.3%.Dengan demikian potensi koreksi sudah terbatas.
*BDMN: Weekly, 5,100 (+1.5%), Buy on Weakness, trading range 5,000 – 5,350. Indikator MFI optimized indikator RSI optimized, indikator Stochastic%D optimized sudah berada di sekitar support trend line dengan kecenderungan menguat lebih lanjut. Jika dilihat lebih lanjut kenaikkan normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +1.32 %, saat ini di level +2.0 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +3.53 % saat ini naik ke level +1.5%. Dengan demikan potensi kenaikkan makin masih terlihat.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
Investment Information Team (saryanto@miraeasset.co.id)
*Manufaktur PMI Inggris pada 56,3 di bulan Oktober vs 55,9 perkiraan FactSet
*IHS Markit akhir A.S. PMI untuk bulan Oktober di 54,6
*Belanja konstruksi pada bulan September naik 0,3%
*INTA +1.0%. PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) meraih pendapatan usaha sebesar Rp1,52 triliun hingga periode 30 September 2017 meningkat dibandingkan pendapatan usaha Rp1,03 triliun di periode sama tahun sebelumnya.
*INDS +6.9%. Manajemen PT Indospring Tbk (INDS) menyampaikan, bahwa pihaknya baru saja mendapatkan dividen tunai dari entitas anaknya yakni PT Indobaja Primamurni.
*ACES +3.5%. PT Ace Hardware Tbk (ACES) kembali membuka gerai terbarunya pada 3 November 2017 mendatang di Depok, Jawa Barat.
*CMNP +2.9%. PT Citramarga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (CMNP) meraih laba neto sebesar Rp448,62 miliar hingga periode 30 September 2017 naik dari laba neto Rp414,70 miliar di periode sama tahun sebelumnya.
*TLKM -1.9%. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (Telkom) menghentikan kerjasama dengan PT Citra Sari Makmur (PT CSM) lantaran PT CSM cidera janji alias wanprestasi
*LEAD -4.0%. PT Logindo Samudramakmur Tbk (Lead) meraih pendapatan sebesar US$20,30 juta hingga periode 30 September 2017 turun dari pendapatan US$25,13 juta di periode sama tahun sebelumnya.
*RMBA -5.0%. Anak usaha Bentoel Group (RMBA) yakni Tresno telah menjual mesin yang sudah digunakan lagi untuk kegiatan operasionalnya kepada perusahaan afiliasi BAT Turkey.
Daily write up
LPPF 3Q rreview: below forecast, but valuation is attractive by Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
- Untuk 3Q17, LPPF membukukan laba bersih IDR166.9bn (-84.7% QoQ, -63.2% YoY), secara kumulatif IDR1.5tr, dibawah perkiraan kami (mencapai 68% dari perkiraan kami).
- Kami menurunkan estimasi laba operasi sebesar 8%/5% untuk 2017F dan 2018F. LPPF membukukan pendapatan sebesar IDR1.81tr di 3Q17, turun 53% QoQ dan 22.7% YoY. Secara kumulatif, LPPF membukukan pendapatan bersih sebesar IDR7.5tr, di bawah perkiraan (mencapai 70%; 9M biasanya berkisar pada 75-76%). Kami menurunkan perkiraan top-line sebesar 7%/5% pada 2017F dan 2018F.
- Pada 9M17, SSSG LPPF masuk di -2,7%. SSSG 3Q17-nya berada pada level -26%, sebagian besar ditimbang oleh penurunan volume (-24,5%) karena efek pasca-Lebaran, meski rata-rata penjualan ritel hanya turun -1,7%. Meskipun SSSG sangat lemah pada 3Q17, manajemen benar-benar melihat pemulihan pada bulan Agustus dan September SSSG.
- Meskipun kami memotong perkiraan pendapatan LPPF, kami menaikkan rekomendasi menjadi Trading Buy dari Hold, karena harga saham LPPF telah turun tajam, sehingga potensi kenaikan terhadap harga target baru kami menjadi tinggi.
Earnings update
ADHI (Hold) 3Q17 review: Relying on next quarter by Franky Rivan (franky@miraeasset.co.id)
- For 3Q17, ADHI’s revenue came in at IDR3.5tr (+20.3% QoQ, +37.8% YoY), operating profit at IDR284.5bn (+23.2% QoQ, +69.1% YoY), and net profit at IDR73.8bn (-34.2% QoQ, +23.7% YoY).
- Given the company’s slower-than-expected burn rate for its colossal LRT project, we cut our burn rate assumption to 52.3% (from 54.2%).
- ADHI booked IDR10.3tr worth of new contracts in 9M17 (-6.4% YoY vs. IDR11tr in 9M16), better than we expected. Thus, for 2017F, we revise up our new contracts projection to IDR33.7tr.
- All in all, we revise up our TP on ADHI to IDR2,170 (from IDR2,000) and maintain our Hold recommendation. ADHI is currently trading at 2018F P/E of 10.2x, slightly above -2 SD from its 5-year average of 9.2x.
(More at: https://goo.gl/JmPKKi)
Earnings update
PTPP (Buy) 3Q17 review: Affirmation continues by Franky Rivan (franky@miraeasset.co.id)
- For 3Q17, PTPP’s revenue came in at IDR5.6tr (+8.2% QoQ, +28.9% YoY), operating profit at IDR662.5bn (+1.3% QoQ, +36.9% YoY), and net profit at IDR417.4bn (-5.6% QoQ, +97.4% YoY).
- Given its sizable current order book coupled with sound revenue recognition ability, we are upbeat on PTPP’s earnings performance going forward.
- For 2017F and 2018F, we revise up our NPM assumptions for PTPP to 6.7% (from 5.7%) and 6.3% (from 5.4%), and hence lift our net profit forecasts to IDR1.49tr (from IDR1.27tr) and IDR1.71tr (from (IDR1.45tr) for 2017F and 2018F, respectively. However, we lower our terminal year margin, as we think normalization should occur over a longer horizon.
- All in all, we revise up our TP to IDR3,730 (from IDR3,610) and maintain our Buy recommendation on PTPP. PTPP is currently trading at 2018F P/E of 10.5x, slightly above -1.5 SD from its five-year average of 10x.
(More at: https://goo.gl/E7T83V)
Earnings update
Adaro Energy (ADRO) - Stronger than expected result by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
(Nov 1, 2017)
- For 3Q17, ADRO posted solid operational numbers, with coal output of 14.2mn tonnes (+7.2% QoQ), likely due to conducive weather conditions during 3Q17. Cumulatively in 9M17, ADRO produced 39.4mn tonnes of coal, relatively flat compared to the same period last year.
- For 3Q17 top line, ADRO posted single-digit quarterly growth with revenue of USD889.6mn (+8.1% QoQ), due to increases in both coal sales volume and ASP. Coal sales volume in the quarter reached 14.2mn tonnes (+7.0% QoQ) due to higher coal production. Furthermore, ADRO’s coal ASP stood at USD58.8/tonne (+1.3% QoQ). All in all, ADRO’s 3Q17 net profit expanded to USD150.1mn (+19.8% QoQ).
- Notably, as of 9M17, ADRO’s operating cash flow surged to USD816.6mn (+51.3% YoY) due to higher payment from customers, which reached USD2.4mn (+41.1% YoY) in 9M17. Meanwhile, ADRO’s interest-bearing debt payment reached USD35.9mn, relatively flat compared to the same period last year.
- As we leave our earnings estimates unchanged, we maintain our target price for ADRO at IDR2,425. We also maintain our Buy call, as our target price now implies 32.9% upside potential.
(More at: https://goo.gl/o13i73)
Flash Focus
Flash Focus – EXCL 3Q17 earnings flash review by Giovanni Dustin (giovanni@miraeasset.co.id)
Nov 1, 2017
- During the first trading session on November 1, 2017, XL Axiata (EXCL) released its 3Q17 results. EXCL booked 3Q17 revenue and EBITDA of IDR5,970bn (+5% QoQ, +14% YoY) and IDR2,280bn (+10% QoQ, +15% YoY), respectively, which was better than our estimates. EXCL posted healthy topline growth on the back of higher data revenue (IDR3,517bn; +11% QoQ, +66% YoY), despite falling legacy revenue (IDR1,810bn; -4.8% QoQ, -27% YoY). EXCL’s data user penetration as of 3Q17 reached 70%, on-track to reach our full year target. Meanwhile, data consumption/sub grew +2% QoQ and +82% YoY, which we suspect was due to the ongoing migration to 4G.
- 3Q17 results brought EXCL’s 9M17 revenue and EBITDA to IDR16,903bn and IDR6,202bn, respectively, well on-track to reach our and consensus full-year estimates. Furthermore, EXCL’s 3Q17 EBITDA margin expanded to 38% (+160bps QoQ, +40bps YoY), which we attribute to its ability in maintaining data yield (+1% QoQ, -33% YoY) in the midst of heightened competition.
- Meanwhile, EXCL’s 3Q17 net profit came in at IDR95bn (-2% QoQ, net loss in 3Q16), in-line with our estimate, but beat consensus by c.206%. Our long-term optimist view on the telco industry remains intact and we reiterate our Overweight call on the industry. Our recommendation on EXCL is currently under review (previous: Hold/TP IDR3,950).
(See: https://goo.gl/Bvx3Co)
Flash Focus
Flash Focus – SCMA: 3Q17 earnings flash review by Christine Natasya (Natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
Nov 1, 2017
- After the market closed on October 31, Surya Citra Media (SCMA) released its 3Q17 earnings. SCMA’s bottom line came in at IDR254bn, falling 53.2% QoQ and 24% YoY. Cumulatively as of 9M17, the company booked net profit of IDR1tr, achieving only 65% of our full-year forecast and the full-year consensus estimate. We mainly attribute the weaker-than-expected bottom line to SCMA’s weak top line.
- In 3Q17, SCMA booked net revenue of IDR1tr (-28.4% QoQ, -6.4%YoY), bringing cumulative 9M17 top line to IDR3.4tr, which falls short of estimates (72% and 70% run rates to our full-year forecast and the full-year consensus, respectively).
- SCMA’s GPM fell sharply from 67.5% in 2Q17 to 52% in 3Q17. GPM also dropped on a YoY basis, even though last year represents a low base given the high costs associated with the Torabika soccer championship. SCMA will hold a conference call today (November 1) after the market close. Our recommendation on the company is currently under review.
(See: https://goo.gl/aDsP34)
<Market Headlines>
Warga tahan pengeluaran, inflasi Oktober melandai (Kontan)
Konsumsi masyarakat di Oktober dikurangi demi persiapan libur Natal dan Tahun Baru.
UNVR memperkuat brand produk baru (Kontan)
UNVR menyiapkan sejumlah strategi untuk mendongkrak penjualan di tengah konsumsi masyarakat yang melambat. Salah satu strategi adalah memperkuat brand dan menambah portfolio produk baru.
Pemegang saham menyetujui Indika untuk menambahkan kepemilikan di Kideco (Investor Daily)
PT Indika Energy Tbk (INDY) mendapat persetujuan dari pemegang saham untuk menambah 45% kepemilikan di PT Kideco Jaya Agung. Persetujuan ini telah memberi INDY untuk memiliki 91% kepemilikan di Kideco.
Wika akan menerbitkan obligasi Komodo senilai IDR5,3 triliun (Investor Daily)
PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) akan menerbitkan obligasi, yaitu obligasi Komodo senilai IDR5,3 triliun. Perusahaan akan menggunakan IDR1,7 triliun untuk refinancing, sementara sisanya akan digunakan untuk ekspansi proyek baru.
DMAS optimistis capai target (Bisnis Indonesia)
Puradelta Lestari optimistis pendapatan akhir tahun dapat meningkat terutama didorong oleh realisasi penjualan yang sudah dipesan para pabrikan
SMDR akan punya 5 terminal di 2018 (Bisnis Indonesia)
SMDR tengah dalam tahap penyelesaian akuisisi sebuah terminal. Tahun depan SMDR akan mengoleksi lima portfolio terminal ke dalam struktur bisnisnya
(Kompas)
Dorongan Investasi Menguat: Dunia Akui Langkah Perbaikan Iklim Usaha di Indonesia
Buka Akses Pedagang Kecil: Kementerian Perdagangan Dorong Kemitraan Peritel Modern-Tradisional
Model Bisnis Dicari: Perkembangan Digital Jadi Peluang
Negosiasi PerdaganganDipercepat: Antisipasi Penurunan Ekspor
Kenaikan Harga Diwaspadai: Beras dan Cabai Merah Sumbang Inflasi Oktober 2017
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