Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Embun Pagi (Oct 31, 2017)
Research Team (research@miraeasset.co.id)
Market comment by Mimi Halimin (mimi.halimin@miraeasset.co.id)
US stock market ditutup melemah pada Senin (30/10) sesi perdagangan dengan Dow Jones ditutup pada 23.348,74 (-0,36%). Sementara itu, S&P 500 dan Nasdaq juga ditutup melemah masing-masing di level 2.572,83 (-0,32%) dan 6.698,96 (-0,03%). EIDO juga ditutup melemah (-0,60%) pada sesi perdagangan terakhir. Menurut CNBC, saham turun setelah sebuah report muncul mengatakan bahwa DPR sedang mempertimbangkan sebuah rencana yang secara bertahap akan menurunkan US corporate tax rate. Namun, dari market domestik, kami pikir akan ada sentimen yang mixed di market. Selain sentimen global, investor juga akan terus mengincar third quarter earnings results karena akan ada banyak publikasi hari ini pada hari terakhir bulan Oktober.
Market Indicator
JCI: 5,974.08 (-0.02%)
EIDO: 26.46 (-0.60%)
DJIA: 23,348.74 (-0.36%)
FTSE100: 7,487.81 (-0.23%)
USD/IDR: 13,582 (-0.20%)
10yr GB yield: 6.83% (Unchanged)
Oil Price: 54.15 (+0.46%)
Foreign net purchase: IDR933.2bn
Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)
TOP BUY: BMRI, PGAS, UNTR, ASII, BBRI
TOP SELL: TLKM, BBTN, WSKT, BBNI, GGRM
Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)
TLKM, PGAS, BMRI, BBRI, BBTN
Technical insight by Tasrul (tasrul@miraeasset.co.id)
*IHSG: Daily, 5,974.08(-0.0%), consolidation, trading range hari ini 5,962 – 6,005. Potensi koreksi masih terlihat namun untuk sementara cenderung konsolidasi. Hal ini mengingat indikator MFI optimized, indikator W%R optimized ,RSI optimized dan Stochastic %D masih cenderung turun menguji support trend line. Sementara itu pada indikator Bollinger Band optimized akan menguji center line. Pada pergerakkan weekly Indikator MFI optimized , indikator RSI optimized dan indikator Stochastic%D optimized terlihat cenderung naik mendekati resistance trend line.
*ERAA: Daily, 775 (+2.00%), trading buy, trading range 760 - 800. Indikator MFI optimized, indikator W%R optimized , indikator RSI optimized , indikator Stochastic%D optimized cenderung bergerak naik. Pada pergerakkan daily harga saat ini pada level +2.0 % , normal kenaikkan sekitar +2.25 % . Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan sekitar +2.00%, normal kenaikkan sekitar +5.09 %.
*BBCA: Daily,20,425 (+0.6%),Buy on Weakness, trading range 20,225 – 20,575. Indikator MFI optimized dan indikator RSI optimized dan indikator Stochastic%D optimized akan menguji support trend line. Lebih lanjut potensi kenaikkan normal harga pada pergerakkan daily sekitar +0.87%, saat ini di level 0.6 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly kenaikkan normal sekitar +2.11% saat ini harga naik sekitar -2.1%.Dengan demikian potensi kenaikkan masih terlihat.
*BBTN: Weekly, 2,760 (-2.5%), Buy on Weakness, trading range 2,680 – 2,880. Indikator MFI optimized indikator W%R optimized, indikator RSI optimized, indikator Stochastic%D optimized sudah berada Di sekitar support trend line. Jika dilihat lebih lanjut koreksi normal pada pergerakkan daily sekitar -171 %, saat ini di level -2.5 %. Sementara itu pada pergerakkan weekly koreksi normal sekitar -3.05 % saat inI di level -2.5% dan memasuki minggu ke tiga. Dengan demikan potensi koreksi makin terbatas.
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
Investment Information Team (saryanto@miraeasset.co.id)
*A.S belanja konsumen melonjak 1% di bulan September
*A.S pendapatan perseorangan naik 0,4% di bulan September
*A.S Tingkat tabungan turun menjadi 3,1%, terendah sejak 2007
*Indeks inflasi PCE naik 0,4% pada bulan September, inti + 0,1%
*PCE naik 1,6% dalam 12 bulan terakhir; inti 1,3%
*KOBX +2.5%. PT Kobexindo Tractors Tbk (KOBX) meraih pendapatan US$44,70 juta hingga periode 30 September 2017 naik dari pendapatan US$31,70 juta di periode sama tahun sebelumnya
*BOLT +0.9%. Di sembilan bulan pertama 2017, BOLT mencatat pendapatan sebesar Rp 770,27 miliar, turun 0,38% jika dibandingkan dengan pendapatan tahun sebelumnya Rp 773,22 miliar.Laba Garuda Metalindo turun 10,75% year on year (yoy) menjadi Rp 82,50 miliar. Di periode sama tahun sebelumnya BOLT mampu catat laba sebesar Rp 92,44 miliar
*SDPC +0.8%. PT Millennium Pharmacon International Tbk (SDPC) membukukan penjualan bersih sebesar Rp 1,56 triliun selama sembilan bulan di tahun ini. Penjualan itu naik sekitar 6,8% dibandingkan periode sembilan bulan di 2016 yang tercatat Rp 1,46 triliun.
*AALI +0.6%. PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) meraih pendapatan bersih Rp12,49 triliun hingga periode 30 September 2017 naik tajam jika dibandingkan pada periode sama tahun sebelumnya yang Rp9,58 triliun. .
*PTPP -2.0%. PT PP (Persero) Tbk, menyatakan bahwa, sejak tahun 2016 lalu pihaknya sudah tidak lagi mengambil proyek di berbagai daerah dengan nilai di bawah atau kurang dari Rp200 miliar.
*AKRA -4.6%. PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA) meraih pendapatan dari operasi yang dilanjutkan sebesar Rp13,42 triliun hingga periode 30 September 2017 naik dibandingkan pendapatan Rp10,95 triliun di periode sama tahun sebelumnya.
*OKAS -8.3%. Ancora segera produksi emas di tambang Lombok.
Daily write up
BSDE (Buy) 3Q17 review: Normalization after high base by Franky Rivan (franky@miraeasset.co.id)
- Di 3Q17, pendapatan Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE) mencapai IDR1,6tr (-34,4% QoQ, +14,7% YoY), laba usaha sebesar IDR540,6bn (-61,1% QoQ, +5,8% YoY), dan laba bersih di IDR292,1bn (-77,1% QoQ, -13,2% YoY). Pendapatan dan laba bersih 9M17 BSDE masing-masing mencapai 77,8% dan 89,5% terhadap estimasi setahun penuh kami.
- Kami menghubungkan kinerja QoQ yang lebih lambat ke basis 2Q17 yang tinggi. Pada 2Q17, perusahaan mengakui penjualan tanah yang cukup besar ke Mitsubishi JV.
- BSDE memiliki arus kas operasi yang sehat sebesar IDR901,7bn di 3Q17, meningkat dari outflow tahun lalu sebesar IDR205,4bn. Kami melihat sedikit pertanda turunnya kemampuan pengakuan pendapatan perusahaan ke depannya.
- Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Buy kami dengan target harga IDR2.210 untuk BSDE. BSDE saat ini diperdagangkan dengan valuasi menarik 2018F P/E di 10,3x (-2 SD vs rata-rata tiga tahun di 15,8x), yang menurut kami menawarkan margin of safety yang cukup lebar.
Earnings update
AALI: Lower achievement vs. peers by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
- For 3Q17, AALI posted solid CPO production of 440,700 tonnes (+17.6% QoQ), bringing cumulative 9M17 CPO production to 1.2mn tonnes (+15.2% YoY). However, AALI’s CPO extraction rate declined to 20.5% in 9M17 from 21.2% in 9M16, likely due to a higher contribution of external-party FFB production.
- Surprisingly, AALI’s net profit increased to IDR362.5bn (+49.4% QoQ) in 3Q17, due to higher ending finished goods and lower interest expenses, which declined to IDR31.4bn (-3.4% QoQ).
- In 9M17, AALI’s refined business contributed 26.8% to total revenue. Going forward, we think AALI will continue to penetrate the refined business due to the difficulty of obtaining new landbank. Even though the refined business offers lower profit margins than the upstream business, we are positive on AALI’s strategy to maintain sustainable long-term growth.
- As we leave our earnings estimates unchanged, we maintain our target price for AALI at IDR15,300. We also maintain our Hold call, as our target price now implies 4.3% upside potential.
(See more: https://goo.gl/NwceEm)
Flash focus
ISAT and Hutch win blocks in the 2,100MHz spectrum by Giovanni Dustin (giovanni@miraeasset.co.id)
- ISAT and Hutchison were announced the winners of the 2,100MHz spectrum auction. Each operator won one block (1x5MHz) in the 2,100MHz spectrum. The bid offered by both operators reached IDR423bn, about 42% higher than the base price of IDR297bn.
- Although we believe the conclusion of the spectrum auction is positive for the industry, we do see a higher probability of a shift in the industry dynamic, which could benefit the incumbent.
- We reiterate our Overweight call on the telco industry. However, our recommendations for companies under our coverage are under review. Previous: (ISAT/Buy/TP IDR8,100), (TLKM/Trading buy/TP IDR4,770), (EXCL/Hold/TP IDR3,950).
(See: https://goo.gl/fMQBqV)
Flash focus
RALS’ 3Q17 earnings flash review by Christine Natasya (natasya@miraeasset.co.id)
- After the market closed on October 30, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS) announced its 9M17 results on the IDX website. For 3Q17, RALS posted a net loss of IDR1bn (vs. net profit of IDR366bn in 2Q17), which brought cumulative 9M17 net profit to IDR367.8bn, achieving 87% of our full-year estimate. Although turning to a net loss in 3Q, we believe RALS is still on track to achieving our forecast.
- RALS’ top line declined by 60% QoQ in 3Q17, which we attribute to a high base from the Eid al-Fitr celebration in 2Q. On a YoY basis, top line also decreased by 32%, mainly due to the high base of last year (9M16 SSSG was +7%, vs. 9M17’s -0.7%). Cumulatively from January to September, RALS booked net revenue of IDR4.4tr, in line with our estimates (78% of our full-year forecast). RALS’ gross profit margin was steady in 3Q17, at 40.7% (vs 40.6% in 2Q17 and 40% in 3Q16). For 9M17, GPM was 39.2%, a slight improvement from 9M16’s 38.5%.
- Our stance on the company is currently under review.
(See: https://goo.gl/MfziZJ)
Earnings update
SGRO: Wait for weather signal by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
(Oct 30, 2017)
- SGRO’s CPO production grew markedly QoQ, reaching 87,473 tonnes (+65.5% QoQ) due to higher FFB production (428,067 tonnes; +68.2% QoQ). The higher FFB production was due to conducive weather during 3Q17.
- For 3Q17, SGRO posted unexpectedly strong earnings, with net profit soaring to IDR48.7bn (+201.0% QoQ) on the back of robust revenue of IDR927.3bn (+59.0% QoQ). The higher net profit was also supported by a much lower FFB cost of revenue (down 43.9% QoQ to IDR14.8bn). We do not yet have clarity from the management as to the reason for the lower FFB cost of revenue in 3Q17.
- As of 9M17, SGRO’s new planting program has only reached 2,515 hectares, far below our full-year new planting target of 5,000 hectares.
- As we leave our earnings estimates unchanged, we maintain our target price for SGRO at IDR2,100. However, we downgrade our call from Hold to Sell, as our target price now implies 15.3% downside potential.
(More at: https://goo.gl/E3jq6L)
Earnings update
LSIP: No surprising catalyst in the last round by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
(Oct 30, 2017)
- LSIP posted strong CPO production for 3Q17, reaching 107,700 tonnes (+26.1% QoQ), which we attribute to higher fresh fruit bunch (FFB) nucleus production (360,800 tonnes; +27.0% QoQ).
- In 3Q17, LSIP’s CPO ASP declined to IDR7,805/kg (-3.5% QoQ), while its CPO sales volume expanded to 105,037 tonnes (+12.6% QoQ). Thus, 3Q17 revenue expanded to IDR1.1tr. Net profit also improved to IDR180.0bn (+111.3% QoQ) on the back of lower upkeep & cultivation expenses (IDR123.9bn; -7.2% QoQ).
- For the full year, we expect LSIP’s new planting in its oil palm plantation areas to reach only 625 hectares. In addition, LSIP has no plans to convert its rubber plantation to oil palm plantation in the short term. LSIP’s rubber plantation reached 16,101 hectares in 9M17.
- As we leave our earnings estimates unchanged, we maintain our target price for LSIP at IDR1,500. We also keep our Hold call, as our target price implies 0.3% downside potential.
(More at: https://goo.gl/JNvPuW)
<Market Headlines>
Kenaikan realisasi investasi tak sebanding serapan pekerja (Kontan)
Pada kuartal III-2017 penyerapan tenaga kerja 286,497 orang, naik 3.79%.
Bunga deposito terus turun (Kontan)
Bunga deposito turun 25-50 basis poin.
PT PP mencari pembiayaan dari pinjaman dan obligasi sebesar IDR10 triliun (Investor Daily)
PT PP Tbk (PTPP) mencari pinjaman eksternal baik pinjaman bank maupun obligasi sebesar IDR10 triliun pada tahun 2018. Dana tersebut akan digunakan untuk investasi pada tahun 2018.
Wika Realty berencana menerbitkan MTN sebesar IDR1 triliun (Investor Daily)
PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) melalui anak perusahaannya, yaitu PT Wijaya Karya Realty berencana menerbitkan Medium Term Notes (MTN) sebesar IDR1 triliun. Penerbitan MTN ini akan dibagi beberapa tahap sampai tahun depan.
Laba MTDL naik 36% (Bisnis Indonesia)
MTDL mencatatkan laba bersih IDR155bn selama 9M17, naik 36%YoY.
Untung ARNA tumbuh 38% (Bisnis Indonesia)
ARNA membukukan laba bersih 38%YoY di tengah isu pelemahan daya beli yang membayangi sepanjang tahun ini
(Kompas)
Kenaikan Tarif Cukai untuk Kendalikan Konsumsi
Kualitas Layanan Diperbaiki: Perlu Kehati-hatian untuk Kelola Data Registrasi Kartu Prabayar
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