Market comment by Taye Shim (taye.shim@miraeasset.com)
Resiko yang terkait dengan kepresidenan Trump sedang berada di center stage dan investor mempertanyakan apakah dorongan kebijakan ekonomi Trump yang agresif dapat direalisasikan. Pasar AS melihat kinerja single-day terburuk sejak kemenangan Trump, indeks VIX melambung dan Yen bergerak lebih tinggi terhadap greenback. MSCI Indonesia (EIDO) turun 2.6% semalam. Sebenarnya, risiko politik tidak dapat diprediksi, oleh karena itu, kami merekomendasikan investor untuk fokus pada perkembangan fundamental. Menurut beberapa laporan pers, pemakzulan Trump sedang dibahas oleh broker sebagai opsi yang mungkin. Namun, mengingat Trump baru saja terpilih oleh rakyat, pemakzulan akan meludahi wajah sendiri. Kami memperkirakan IHSG mengalami turbulensi yang berlanjut hari ini.
Market Indicator
JCI: 5,615.49 (-0.55%)
EIDO: 25.84 (-2.56%)
DJIA: 20,606.93 (-1.78%)
FTSE100: 7,503.47 (-0.25%)
USD/IDR: 13,324 (+0.18%)
10yr GB yield: 7.04% (-1bps)
Oil Price: 49.07 (+0.84%)
Foreign net purchase: -IDR202.2bn
Foreign net purchase on single stocks (HOTS screen #0141)
TOP BUY: PTPP, TLKM, UNVR, WSBP, SCMA
TOP SELL: BMRI, ASII, PGAS, BBRI, BBNI
Most actively traded stocks (HOTS screen #0102)
BBCA, ASII, BBRI, TLKM, BMRI
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Equity Movers
Investment Information Team (utfi.humaya@miraeasset.co.id)
*Persediaan minyak mentah AS turun 1,8 juta barel pekan lalu: EIA
*Tingkat pengangguran Inggris turun menjadi 4,6% pada bulan Maret vs 4,7% perkiraan FactSet
*Upah termasuk bonus Inggris naik 2,4% di bulan Maret, sesuai perkiraan FactSet
*TBIG 0,4%. Tower Bersama siapkan dana Rp2,5 triliun untuk tambah 2.500 menara baru.
*AGRO -3,4%. Rights issue, BRI Agro bidik dana hingga Rp 1,15 triliun. Harga pelaksanaan ditetapkan di kisaran Rp 130 - Rp 150 per saham.
*WICO -4,6%. Wicaksana Overseas perluas wilayah distribusi.
*MAYA 0,0%. RUPST Bank Mayapada menyepakati pembagian dividen sebesar 24% dari laba bersih 2016 atau sebesar Rp 196,77 miliar.
*GDYR 0,0%. Goodyear bakal genjot produksi untuk memperluas pasar domestik.
*ADMF +1,8%. Adira Finance tebar dividen Rp 505 miliar, atau setara dengan 50% dari laba bersih 2016.
*KINO 0,0%. Kino Indonesia bagi dividen Rp35,7 miliar, setara 20% dari laba bersih 2016.
Daily write up
Cement: Surprising volume growth in April by Mimi Halimin (mimi.halimin@miraeasset.co.id)
- Konsumsi semen domestik pada bulan April mencapai 5.1mn ton (+11.0% YoY). Pertumbuhan YoY volume di bulan April tersebut tergolong sangat tinggi.
- Namun, kami masih kuatir akan persaingan ketat industri yang menyeret turun harga jual rata-rata (ASP) produsen semen.
- Saat ini, kami masih mempertahankan Underweight call kami di sektor semen.
Flash note
Bank Central Asia (BBCA) : One step back, two steps forward by Taye Shim (taye.shim@miraeasset.com)
- BBCA shares fell 7.2% over the past two trading sessions following the reduction (announced May 16th) of its weight in the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan Index from 0.42% to 0.34%. Foreign investors net sold IDR189bn, which exacerbated the gravitational pull south.
- In particular, we note that: 1) the 10-year government bond yield stands at 7.04% (-94bps YTD); 2) the rupiah has strengthened 1.1% YTD (to IDR13,324) against the greenback; and 3) the dollar index continues to lose steam (98.0p; -4.1% YTD).
- Given the macro cyclicality of banks, we strongly believe the banking sector will be the key beneficiary during the economic recovery cycle. Within the banking space, we think BBCA is best-positioned to embrace a growth agenda.
- With BBCA trading near the lower rung of the Bollinger band, at a 2017F P/B of 3.2x, we believe the current share price presents an attractive entry point. We reiterate our Trading Buy recommendation on BBCA.
(See: https://goo.gl/SMG13U)
Earnings update
Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) : Driven up by “P” by Andy Wibowo Gunawan (andy.wibowo@miraeasset.co.id)
(May 17, 2017)
- For 1Q17, net profit of Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG) achieved 32.4% and 29.0% of our and consensus full-year 2017F targets, respectively. This strong financial result was mainly driven by the quarter’s higher average selling price (ASP) of USD67.5/tonne (+41.5% YoY; +12.9% QoQ).
- Meanwhile, coal production figure was lower due to seasonal factors, which we have already predicted.
- We maintain our revenue estimates for ITMG at USD1.8bn (2017F) and USD2.2bn (2018F). Our net profit targets stand at USD176.4mn (2017F) and USD236.6mn (2018F).
- Due to our unchanged earnings estimates, we maintain our 12-month forward TP for ITMG at IDR22,100. We upgrade our investment rating for the company to Buy from Trading Buy as its share price offers upside potential of more than 20.0%.
(See at: https://goo.gl/n2wBm8)
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